Grumpy Editor

RUSSIA INVASION TRIGGERS HIGHER U.S. INFLATION

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is boosting U.S. inflation, notes Grumpy Editor.

Simply put:  The economy is being affected by higher oil prices.

 

Economic consequences of Russia’s invasion are leading upward movements in commodity prices, especially energy.  “That’s going to work its way through the U.S. economy," says Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.

 

“We’re going to see upward pressure on inflation, at least for a while,” he adds.

 

Consumer prices already are rising at the fastest pace in four decades,  jumping 7.5 percent in January from a year prior.

 

 

IN CASE YOUR FAVORITE NEWS OUTLETS MISSED THESE…

 

NAVY RECOVERS SUBMERGED FIGHTER JET.  Concerned that China might get to it, the U.S. Navy recovers the advanced F-35C Lightning II stealth fighter jet from the bottom (12,400 feet) of the South China Sea that it lost after a crash aboard aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson a month ago. 

 

CLAM CONTAINS $100,000 PEARL.  Michael Spressler thought he'd cracked a molar after biting into a raw clam at his favorite South Jersey restaurant.  Then he finds that “it was a perfectly round pearl.”  At 8.83 millimeters, it could be worth as much as $100,000. 

 

NEW WEATHER SATELLITE IN ORBIT.  The U.S.'s latest weather satellite takes flight, designed to improve wildfire and flood forecasting across the western half of the country.  It replaces a satellite that was launched four years ago.

 

AMELIA EARHART'S HELMET AUCTIONED. The  leather helmet that Amelia Earhart wore on a flight across the Atlantic Ocean in 1928 sells at auction for $825,000.  It goes to an anonymous on-line bidder. 

 

PRESERVED SHIP'S WRECKAGE FOUND.  The 130-year-old wreckage of the ship Atlanta is discovered at the bottom of Lake Superior, 35 miles off Deer Park, Michigan.  The Great Lakes Shipwreck Historical Society says the ship is a "wonderfully preserved shipwreck” 650 feet below the lake's surface.

 

NORTH KOREA FIRES ANOTHER MISSILE.  North Korea fires another suspected ballistic missile into the sea, extending its streak of weapons tests this year amid a prolonged freeze in nuclear negotiations with the United States.

 

YELLOWSTONE PARK MARKS DEBUT.  Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming, this month marks its establishment by an act of Congress in March, 1872, the first area in the world to be designated a national park.  It covers nearly 3,500 square miles mostly in Wyoming and into parts of Montana and Idaho. 

 

WATERLOGGED COW TAKES RIVER RIDE.  A cow carried away by floodwaters in Australia is found wandering on a beach after floating down a river in New South Wales.  The confused cow drifted about three miles down Tweed River from a farm in the Terranora area.

THANKSGIVING THIS YEAR COMES WITH HIGHEST PRICE TAG IN YEARS

Inflation and supply chain problems are making an expensive Thanksgiving this year, notes Grumpy Editor.

Thanksgiving dinner's average cost for 10 people is $53, estimates the American Farm Bureau.

It cites a 16-pound turkey costs about $24 --- almost $5 more than the average cost a year ago.

Also contributing to a higher outlay for Thanksgiving, adds the Farm Bureau, is high global demand for food, particularly meat. 

It's the priciest meal in the survey's 36 years and up 14 percent from about $47 last year.

 

IN CASE YOUR FAVORITE NEWS OUTLETS MISSED THESE...

COVID-19 DEATHS SWELL. Total reported deaths linked to COVID-19 tops 770,800 on Saturday, Johns Hopkins data show. This puts the pandemic total at more than twice the 385,343 COVID-19 deaths last year, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

COMPANIES STRUGGLED TO FILL JOBS.  Although employers added 531,000 jobs last month, companies are still struggling to fill positions after about 4.4 million people quit their jobs in September.  Companies are dangling higher pay and flexible work schedules in efforts to hire and keep people.

UNIVERSITY LECTURERS STRIKE AVERTED.  A massive two-day strike by University of California lecturers that threatened widespread class cancellations is averted after the union and university reached a tentative agreement on a new contract.

POLICE LASSO STRAY PIG IN NEIGHBORHOOD.  Cincinnati, Ohio police use a pet leash to "lasso" a pig found running loose through the Bond Hill neighborhood.

 

10-POINT BUCK GOES TO CHURCH.  In other animal news, a 10-point buck seeks sanctuary inside a Sturgis, Michigan church auditorium on opening day of the state’s firearm deer hunting season. The animal later leaps through a window and back into the wild.

 

$43 MILLION PAID FOR U.S. CONSTITUTION COPY.  A rare first edition copy of the U.S. Constitution sells to an anonymous buyer at auction for about $43 million --- more than double what was expected, says Sotheby’s.

"HEADING IN RIGHT DIRECTION" UP A FRACTION.  One third of voters think the country is heading in the right direction, according to a Rasmussen Reports survey for the week ending November 11. The findings are up three points from a week earlier.  

NAVY SLOW IN PAYING SOME SAILORS.  Some Navy sailors are being forced to take out loans over months-long delays in pay to those who earned increases in their housing allowances this year stemming from marriages or moving somewhere with a higher cost of living. 

With 'muted' inflation, seniors 2015 COLA: 1.7 percent

While growing inflation was indicated just four months ago, that "dragon" has vaporized with today's announcement that the 2015 cost of living adjustment (COLA) for Social Security recipients and others will be 1.7 percent, the fifth time in six years that the COLA was under 2 percent, notes Grumpy Editor.

Some seniors faced with higher costs in vital areas such as health care, utilities, car insurance, groceries and airline travel are raising eyebrows over the Bureau of Labor Statistics tally.

The 2015 COLA compares with increases of 1.5 percent for 2014, 1.7 percent for 2013 and 3.6 percent in 2012 following two years with no raises.

The BLS averages consumer price indexes from July, August and September to determine next year’s COLA for about 60 million Social Security and Supplemental Security Income recipients.

As recently as May there were indications of higher inflation.  That's when the BLS announced year-over-year gain in the consumer price index for the 12 months ended in April jumped to 2 percent.

A June 13 headline in The Wall Street Journal read:  Inflation "Dragon" Shows Signs of Stirring.  Two days later, Associated Press reported “evidence that inflation is ticking up from low levels.”

After the BLS released figures on June 17 that showed the CPI rose 2.1 percent over the prior 12 months, media reported indications point to “a burst of higher inflation.”

That’s when John Ryding, chief economist at RDQ Economics LLC, said, “we’ve got an inflation rate that’s been rising more than the Fed expected."

Those June reports came as an early indicator that Social Security recipients might get an improved COLA boost for 2015.  But, as with the weather, clouds suddenly began to appear on the horizon.

In July, the BLS said consumer prices rose 1.6 percent from a year earlier --- down from 2.1 percent it reported just a month earlier. 

Then in late August word was put out that most signs point to “benign inflation pressures.”

Going into September, media resurrected use of the long-used "tame" in referring to inflation.  At month's end, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans said inflation was "stubbornly low."

Inflation took a back seat last week when the "risk of deflation" phrase made a reappearance with reports of slowing global economic growth.

Social Security recipients COLA boost looming for 2015?

After several years using the term, it looks like print and broadcast media finally will be forced to shelve “tame” in connection with describing the inflation level as the latest year-over-year gain in the Labor Department’s consumer price index jumps to 2 percent, notes Grumpy Editor. 

It also means there is hope for Social Security recipients getting a larger cost of living adjustment (COLA) for 2015.  The COLA for this year was a modest 1.5 percent 

The consumer price index (CPI) rose a seasonally adjusted 0.3 percent last month from March as higher costs from food to energy pushed prices upward.  Meat prices, for example, last month posted the largest jump in 11 years. 

That puts the inflation rate at 2 percent through the 12 months ended in April. 

But, with most of Washington looking the other way when inflation is mentioned, one still has to be cautious.

Grumpy Editor points to a Nov. 18, 2010 posting in this space that mentioned a headline over an Associated Press story:  Consumer prices rise moderately but inflation tame. 

Important to observe will be CPI figures from July, August and September.  They will be averaged out to determine the COLA for Social Security recipients and others next year. 

Next inflation rate update is slated for release on June 17.

 

In case you missed these…

VA WHISTLEBLOWER WEB SITE CREATED.   VAoversight.org is a joint effort of the Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America and Project On Government Oversight (POGO).  It gives whistleblowers the option of providing contact information and features bold-face warnings to avoid using a government computer or phone to submit complaints. “Whistleblowers shouldn’t have to go it alone. We can help whistleblowers hold the VA accountable, and keep the focus on solutions rather than attempts to hunt down those who voiced concerns,” said POGO Executive Director Danielle Brian.

 

IMAGINE, STRAIGHT NEWS REPORTING.  Heritage Foundation, Washington-based conservative think tank, on June 3 debuts Daily Signal a digital news site.  It will focus on “true, straight-down-the-middle journalism,” said Geoffrey Lysaught, Heritage’s vice president of strategic communications.

 

DOES ELEANOR READ NEWSPAPERS, WATCH TV NEWS?  During a discussion of Benghazi on “The McLaughlin Group” on PBS, liberal columnist Eleanor Clift declared U.S. Ambassador J. Christopher Stevens wasn’t really murdered but rather died from “smoke inhalation in a CIA safe room.”  Fellow panelists were quick to set her straight, pointing out Stevens’ death (along with three other Americans) stemmed from a terrorist attack.

 

FRENCH FOREIGN MINISTER SEES CLIMATE CHAOS BY LATE 2015.  The world has “500 days to avoid climate chaos,” French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius warned in Washington. “I know that President Obama and John Kerry himself are committed on this subject and I’m sure that with them, with a lot of other friends, we shall be able to reach success in this very important matter,” added Fabius.

 

GANNETT BUYS TV STATIONS IN LONE STAR STATE.  Gannett Co., adding to its growing list of TV stations, agreed to buy six more from London Broadcasting Co. for $215 million.  All are in Texas.

 

NOW, WHICH AUTO WAS THAT?  During CBS’s “48 Hours” on Friday, FOUR auto commercials from different manufacturers ran in tandem.  This sort of thing, confusing viewers, never happened during earlier network days when only one commercial for an advertiser in its field ran during an hour.

Wall Street Journal likes proposed ‘chained CPI’; Newspaper revenue continues to decline in 2012

The Wall Street Journal jumped into the “chained CPI” fray with a Thursday editorial, neglecting the negative financial effect it would have on squeezed Social Security recipients and others, but backing President Barack Obama in replacing the traditional consumer price index with the “more accurate measure of inflation,” notes Grumpy Editor.

Switching the long-running traditional CPI with chained CPI --- short for the mouthful “chained consumer price index for all urban consumers” --- would reduce benefit increases to more than 60 million Americans receiving Social Security and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) monthly payments. 

As the Journal happily explains the chained CPI: “This alternative measure of purchasing power takes into account how consumers change their buying habits over time as prices change.  When oranges cost more, for example, people buy fewer oranges and eat more apples instead.” 

Sounds good.  But will that routine happen? 

Getting back to the oranges/apples illustration --- Journal editorial writers may be interested to know that at a local Kroger supermarket, oranges are 89 cents a pound with apples a dime higher. 

Will consumers really shift to cheaper substitutes?

Following that thinking, an updated CPI formula points to seniors switching, as examples, to bus transportation when air fares rise above the cumulus, or moving from a two bedroom apartment to smaller lodging --- or (worst of all) dropping a newspaper subscription in favor of checking the Web.

Print national advertising drops 15 percent 

Newspaper revenue continues to ebb, falling to $38.6 billion or 2 percent last year compared with 2011, according to the Newspaper Association of America. 

NAA notes advertising in printed daily and Sunday newspapers dropped 9 percent in 2012, according to data from 15 companies that provided detailed breakouts by category.

In various segments, adds NAA, retail advertising was off 8 percent, national advertising dropped 15 percent while classified advertising declined 9 percent.

Within the classified category, automotive slumped 9 percent, real estate fell 12 percent, recruitment declined 8 percent and all other classified edged down 5 percent, tallies NAA.

However, there are signs that the dips are starting to be made up by other sources, including digital subscriptions and digital advertising.

 

In case you missed these…

Despite an uneasy situation in some parts of the world, more than a dozen Air Force fighter squadrons are grounded at U.S. bases around the world, as the cash-strapped service confronts the effects of steep defense budget cuts brought on by sequestration.  Says one veteran Air Force commander:  “The stuff that’s happening this year is going to have impacts on our force for many years to come.”  In addition, the Air Force wants to shed 2,640 airmen next year…The Postal Service is canceling plans to end Saturday mail delivery this summer. Editors on many newsweeklies and community papers are breathing easier since their products rely on Saturday mail delivery to reach subscribers…Los Angeles CBS radio station KNX today marks its 45^th year as an all-news outlet.  Over the years, notes Grumpy Editor, the 50,000 watter continues to do a top-notch professional job around the clock.

CNN plans to bring back Crossfire in June…The New York Observer laid off 11 people from the business side of its overall media group on Friday, part of a sales team reorganization…Why print copy editors sprout gray hair: The Associated Press is making another change in its Stylebook, this time contracting under way to one word, underway…The Taylor family, former owner of the Boston Globe for more than a century until 1993, is mulling an offer to buy back the daily, along with the Worcester Telegram & Gazette, from The New York Times Co…Annual ritual continues:  Look for local TV news crews tonight to stake out Post Offices for video of late tax filers dispatching their envelopes to the IRS.

‘Chained CPI’ likely to see squeezed seniors grumbling; Associated Press bans use of 'illegal immigrant' term

“Chained CPI” likely will get little comment from most print and broadcast media on Wednesday when President Barack Obama’s budget plan is formally announced, yet, if initiated, the new formula for the annual cost of living adjustment (COLA) will negatively affect millions of older Americans receiving Social Security and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) benefits, notes Grumpy Editor.

The traditional consumer price index (CPI), long used in calculating the annual COLA, would be replaced by “chained CPI” that reduces yearly expected benefit increases. 

More than 60 million Americans receiving Social Security and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) payments would be further squeezed while facing higher costs for utility, gasoline, food, health-medical and most other bills. 

Recipients growled when this year’s COLA rose a modest 1.7 percent --- about half of last year’s 3.6 percent. 

In switching to a lower “chained CPI,” the Obama administration's thinking is growth of entitlement programs would be slowed. 

It assumes when prices of various items rise, consumers switch to cheaper substitutes, thus lower price tags.

 

AP scratches 'illegal' from Stylebook  

The Associated Press now bans the term, “illegal immigrant.”  In its updated Stylebook, followed by most news gatherers, AP mentions “use illegal only to refer to an action, not a person; illegal immigration, but not illegal immigrant.” 

So what is an acceptable variation? 

AP cites “living in or entering a country illegally or without legal permission.”  Except in direct quotations, AP adds, “do not use the terms illegal alien, an illegal, illegals or undocumented.” 

News folks who consult dictionaries may become confused.  Among definitions for illegal in one dictionary:  “A person who has entered or attempted to enter a country illegally.” 

What’s Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano think about AP’s identification adjustment?  She tells reporters she didn’t “really get caught up in the vocabulary wars.”

 

In case you missed these… 

As North Korea trumpets its “can-happen-at-any-time” ballistic missile firing, the U.S. Defense Department says the U.S. will deploy a missile-defense system to Guam as a “precautionary move.”  But, in looking closely at the announcement, it will occur “in coming weeks”…Inflation:  The Chicago Tribune raises its single-copy newsstand price by 50 cents to $1.50.  The Sunday edition remains $1.99 a copy…Confusing to subscribers:  The Cleveland Plain Dealer says it will deliver newspapers only three times a week starting this summer, but will continue publishing daily…Red Lobster is dangling an opportunity for its shrimp-eating patrons to appear in TV commercials.  Today is the last day to “tell us about your Endless Shrimp ritual --- who it's with and why you look forward to it all year,” says the restaurant chain. All it takes is 50 to 250 words, a photo and video (two minutes maximum).  No mention of pay --- or endless shrimp on the house for those selected.

Social Security COLA for 2013: a modest 1.7 percent

The 1.7 percent increase in the 2013 cost of living adjustment (COLA) for seniors, announced today, means about 60 million Americans receiving Social Security and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) payments starting in January will be squeezed in keeping up with bills, notes Grumpy Editor. 

Latest COLA represents about half the 3.6 percent boost for 2012 that came after two years with no raises. 

That translates to an annual average increase since 2009 of only 1.3 percent, hardly enough to keep up with higher costs for utility, gasoline, food, health-medical and most other bills. 

The Social Security COLA is based on increases in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). 

Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) officials compare inflation in the third quarter with the same prior-year period.

Things could get even tighter for many retirees. 

Some of the 2013 increase could be wiped out by higher Medicare premiums --- to be announced later --- that are deducted from Social Security payments. 

Government projections indicate Medicare Part B premiums are expected to rise about $7 a month in 2013 from this year’s $99.90 for most seniors. 

Medicare covers services, such as lab tests, surgeries and doctor visits plus supplies (like wheelchairs and walkers) considered medically necessary to treat a disease or condition. 

The Social Security Administration says most retirees rely on monthly Social Security payments for 90 percent of their income.

Noteworthy this year is that today’s slim COLA for retirees comes exactly three weeks before Election Day.

Early numbers point to lower 2013 COLA for seniors

Seniors looking for a 2013 cost-of-living-adjustment on par with this year’s 3.6 percent COLA may be disappointed, sees Grumpy Editor. 

Media have been quiet on this outlook but the way things are shaping up, Social Security recipients will be lucky to get half that increase starting in January. 

Despite Americans getting hit harder in the wallet, especially with food and energy, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics maintains consumer prices remained steady last month, continuing the long-heard line that “inflation pressures are contained” --- or “tame,” as the media like to describe it. 

Figures from July, August and September will be averaged out to determine the 2013 COLA for about 60 million Social Security and Supplemental Security Income recipients. 

BLS figures released last Wednesday show the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased 1.3 percent over the last 12 months.  But for July, the index decreased 0.2 percent prior to seasonal adjustment. 

The CPI-W index for the third quarter this year vs. the like quarter last year is the key factor in determining the SS and SSI increase for 2013. 

Seniors can get another hint of the CPI direction with BLS’s release of August figures on Sept. 14.

 

Confusion continues on inflation: trending up or down?

So which way is inflation headed --- up or down?  With release of the consumer price index for April, confusion still reigns, notes Grumpy Editor. 

The headline on a May 15 news release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics read:

CPI all items unchanged in April as decline in energy index offsets other increases

Working off the BLS data, a Wall Street Journal story followed that with its own headline:

Inflation Eases as Gasoline Prices Fall 

The BLS lead spelled out, “On a seasonally adjusted basis, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers was unchanged in April after increasing 0.3 percent in March.  The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in April, the same increase as in March." 

That’s where the confusion starts with words unchanged and rose in the same paragraph. 

As the WSJ pointed out, the CPI “measures what Americans pay for everything from breakfast cereal to doctor visits.” 

So that was heralded as unchanged, according to the BLS, from March to April. 

But then “core” prices entered the picture. 

The BLS news release indicated, “The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in April, the same increase as in March.  Increases in the indexes for shelter, used cars and trucks, medical care, airline fares, new vehicles and apparel all contributed significantly to the April increase.” 

With that, the WSJ story added core prices “were up 2.3 percent from a year ago --- matching the biggest 12-month increase in this category since September 2008.” 

Now are you briefed on which way inflation is going.

 

AP, LA Weekly take different views of future media study

Grumpy Editor finds widely different versions of reporting by the Associated Press and LA Weekly yesterday based on the same University of Southern California study on the future of media.

AP’s Barbara Ortutay’s byliner focuses on the Internet, mentioning “most people don’t consider online content reliable” while LA Weekly’s Dennis Romero writes “the print product some of you like to pick up on your driveway every morning will go the way of the dinosaur within five years.”

Basing information on the study authored by Jeff Cole, director of USC Annenberg School’s Center for the Digital Future, AP’s version points out: 

“Last year, 15 percent of Internet users said they found only a small portion of online information reliable.”

Taking a different angle, LA Weekly summarizes the study with:

“Most print newspapers will be gone in five years.”

The Center says only four major daily newspapers would survive, naming The New York Times, USA Today, The Washington Post and The Wall Street Journal, adds LA Weekly.

USC’s Cole figures “the only print newspapers that will survive will be at the extremes of the medium --- the largest and the smallest.”

The latter include local weekly newspapers.