Grumpy Editor

Confusion continues on inflation: trending up or down?

So which way is inflation headed --- up or down?  With release of the consumer price index for April, confusion still reigns, notes Grumpy Editor. 

The headline on a May 15 news release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics read:

CPI all items unchanged in April as decline in energy index offsets other increases

Working off the BLS data, a Wall Street Journal story followed that with its own headline:

Inflation Eases as Gasoline Prices Fall 

The BLS lead spelled out, “On a seasonally adjusted basis, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers was unchanged in April after increasing 0.3 percent in March.  The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in April, the same increase as in March." 

That’s where the confusion starts with words unchanged and rose in the same paragraph. 

As the WSJ pointed out, the CPI “measures what Americans pay for everything from breakfast cereal to doctor visits.” 

So that was heralded as unchanged, according to the BLS, from March to April. 

But then “core” prices entered the picture. 

The BLS news release indicated, “The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in April, the same increase as in March.  Increases in the indexes for shelter, used cars and trucks, medical care, airline fares, new vehicles and apparel all contributed significantly to the April increase.” 

With that, the WSJ story added core prices “were up 2.3 percent from a year ago --- matching the biggest 12-month increase in this category since September 2008.” 

Now are you briefed on which way inflation is going.

 

AP, LA Weekly take different views of future media study

Grumpy Editor finds widely different versions of reporting by the Associated Press and LA Weekly yesterday based on the same University of Southern California study on the future of media.

AP’s Barbara Ortutay’s byliner focuses on the Internet, mentioning “most people don’t consider online content reliable” while LA Weekly’s Dennis Romero writes “the print product some of you like to pick up on your driveway every morning will go the way of the dinosaur within five years.”

Basing information on the study authored by Jeff Cole, director of USC Annenberg School’s Center for the Digital Future, AP’s version points out: 

“Last year, 15 percent of Internet users said they found only a small portion of online information reliable.”

Taking a different angle, LA Weekly summarizes the study with:

“Most print newspapers will be gone in five years.”

The Center says only four major daily newspapers would survive, naming The New York Times, USA Today, The Washington Post and The Wall Street Journal, adds LA Weekly.

USC’s Cole figures “the only print newspapers that will survive will be at the extremes of the medium --- the largest and the smallest.”

The latter include local weekly newspapers.

 

October Playboy magazine hits stands at 60 cents a copy

If looking for a bargain today, the October issue of Playboy can be plucked off newsstands for 60 cents --- matching the magazine’s price in the early 1960s --- or one-tenth of the usual cover price of $5.99, notes Grumpy Editor. 

It also illustrates the extent of inflation over the years.

The slashed price ties in with drawing attention to the debut Monday of the NBC series, “The Playboy Club,” a fictional drama set in the 1960s. 

With the latest issue, Playboy editors have styled the men’s magazine with a retro look matching 1961, the year when Playboy’s cover price was 60 cents. 

However, the initial issue of the magazine appeared in December, 1953 with a cover price of half a buck. 

The first centerfold featured actress Marilyn Monroe. 

The October issue contains a 10-page spread featuring original Playboy Bunnies who worked at the clubs that sprouted around the nation. 

Magazine and club founder Hugh Hefner was especially busy in the 1959-1960 period, kicking off Playboy’s first jazz festival, hosting a television show and opening the first Playboy mansion in Chicago. 

While the October issue will bring in less newsstand revenue, advertising pages are reported to be up 70 percent compared with the October, 2010 version. 

 

Consumer price index makes surprise jump in July

While heavy financial coverage in today’s newspapers focused on the battering the stock market took Thursday, with the Dow industrials down 419.63 points to 10,990.58, taking a back seat (or buried) was news that the cost of living made a surprise jump in July --- the most in four months, observes Grumpy Editor. 

Key media, echoing Washington, have labeled inflation “tame” in recent months. 

Consumer prices last month rose 0.5 percent, led by higher food and energy costs, reported the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 

It came in more than twice the rate that some economists expected and markedly higher than June’s 0.2 percent decline. 

Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.6 percent before seasonal adjustment. 

The core inflation rate, excluding food and energy prices, was up 0.2 percent in July after two straight months of 0.3 percent increases.

On Wednesday, the Labor Department announced the producer price index (PPI), which measures price changes in goods before they reach consumers, rose 0.4 percent in July, the biggest increase since January.

For those following the consumer price index (CPI), the tally for August is slated to be released on Sept.15 at 8:30 a.m., EDT. 

 

Seniors focus on third quarter CPI for 2012 COLA clue

For Social Security recipients looking for an upward cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) in 2012 monthly payments, last month’s consumer price index (CPI) may provide a clue as to how this year’s third quarter will wind up, observes Grumpy Editor.

Figures from July, August and September will be averaged out to determine the COLA for next year. 

As the Social Security Administration explains it: “The Social Security Act provides for an automatic increase in Social Security and SSI benefits if there is an increase in the consumer price index for urban wage earners and clerical workers (CPI-W) from the third quarter of the last year a cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) was determined to the third quarter of the current year.” 

So it’s interesting to note that Friday-released consumer prices, as tallied by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)  fell 0.2 percent in June from a month earlier for the first time in a year.

“Lower Inflation in June” proclaims headlines in newspapers and in broadcast reports. 

However, less emphasized:  Excluding volatile fuel and food costs, core inflation rose 0.3 percent, making it the second straight monthly gain and the largest back-to-back increase since summer, 2008. 

Watchful Social Security recipients will be focusing attention on the July CPI tally from BLS, due to be announced on Aug. 18, followed by August figures on Sept. 15 and September numbers on Oct. 19. 

Four months ago, Social Security trustees projected a 1.2 percent COLA for senior recipients while President Barack Obama envisioned under one percent (0.9 percent, to be exact).

 

Where are the jobs? 'Tight' bankers curb hiring by firms

With unemployment figures rising to 9.2 percent in June and cries for creating jobs, one of the overlooked --- especially by media --- “villains” in the picture are banks which continue to be stingy on making loans for expansions of businesses, notes Grumpy Editor.

More than 14.1 million workers are currently unemployed. The number of long-term unemployed, those jobless for 27 weeks or more, remains steady at 6.3 million. 

Many small businesses, especially, are handcuffed in hiring additional workers, expanding or making capital expenditures because of tight credit. 

This includes businesses with solid bottom lines and long relationships with financial institutions that remain frugal when it comes to loans. 

However, major banks welcome deposits, but at puny interest rates. 

Citibank, Bank of America, Wells Fargo and other major banks pay a minuscule 0.30 annual percentage yield (APY) or less on one-year certificates of deposit (CDs). 

Despite sluggish loan growth in its latest quarter, J.P. Morgan Chase, for example, posts a strong increase in profit while loans fall 4 percent from a year prior. 

Many financial institutions are thriving on fees and other charges. 

Some businesses need bank funds to cope with inflationary pressures, even though federal announcements claim inflation remains “tame,” a word echoed in media reports. 

Meanwhile, bankers with low loan output point to regulators urging lenders to demand proof that loans will be repaid.  In addition, loan officers claim there is less money to lend because regulators are requiring banks to hold more capital in case loans default. 

Bottom line:  Correcting the current tight money problem for businesses still points to Washington legislators and the White House which can remedy the situation in efforts to boost the economy and create jobs to get America back on track.

 

Bernanke’s remarks again send stock market south

Similar to the reaction following a press conference earlier this month, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s meeting with the media yesterday resulted in the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping from the plus side to close down 80.34 points to 12109.67, notes Grumpy Editor.

Also similar were his statements.

At a June 7 banking conference in Atlanta, the Fed chief said economic growth has been "somewhat slower" than expected. That pushed the Dow Jones Industrial Average that day down 19.15 points to 12070.81, lowest closing level since March 22.

With the market in positive territory yesterday and facing the press following a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting but before the market close, Bernanke said the U.S. economy was recovering more slowly than expected.

Basically the same line.  Then a market decline.

Again, mention of higher inflation was a factor.

"In particular, consumers' purchasing power has been damped by higher food and energy prices, and the aftermath of the tragic earthquake and tsunami in Japan has been associated with disruption in global supply chains," said Bernanke.

The Fed’s projection for this year’s underlying inflation, subtracting the perennial reference to “volatile food and energy costs,” was elevated to between 1.5 percent and 1.8 percent from April's 1.3 to 1.6 forecast.

Next FOMC meeting followed by a press conference is scheduled for Aug. 9.

 

When Bernanke talks, stock market goes into reverse

Investors have noted that when Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke talks, stocks drop.

That seems to be the routine these days, making one wonder why his outlooks aren’t slated until after the close of the stock market, especially on a rare day when it was rising, notes Grumpy Editor. 

Such was the situation yesterday when the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 19.15 points to 12070.81, lowest closing level since March 22. 

With an earlier stock market rally bubbling along, up as much as 89 points, Bernanke’s speech at an Atlanta banking conference contributed to sending major market indexes in the final minutes of yesterday’s session to their fifth consecutive drop. 

The market reversal came after Bernanke said economic growth has been "somewhat slower" than expected.  However, he added, the recovery should pick up again in the second half of 2011 (that starts in 23 days).

"The economic recovery appears to be continuing at a moderate pace, albeit at a rate that is both uneven across sectors and frustratingly slow from the perspective of millions of unemployed and underemployed workers," said the Fed chief.

President Barack Obama expressed concern about the slowdown in the economy but declared he is not worried about a second recession and the nation should "not panic."

"The market was disappointed," said David Jones, head of DMJ Economic Advisors, a private consulting firm. "Wall Street investors were hoping for the promise of another round of credit easing, and they didn't get it." 

While print and broadcast media, echoing government reports, have labeled inflation as “tame” for months, Bernanke said it has jumped 3.5 percent in the six months ended in April, well above the average of less than one percent over the preceding two years. 

 

Will tough questions greet Obama at a town hall on CBS?

Now that discussions on the death of Osama bin Laden are about exhausted --- hopefully capped by President Barack Obama’s Wednesday taped interview aired last night on CBS’ 60 Minutes  --- CBS News on Thursday plans to spotlight the president fielding questions on the economy, notes Grumpy Editor. 

While the one-hour session will appear to be live, it will be taped a day prior. 

Airing during the the 8 a.m. (Eastern) hour of The Early Show on May 12, the program’s co-anchor Erica Hill and Face the Nation anchor Bob Schieffer will host the event before an audience at the Newseum in Washington, D.C.  Also on hand will be Rebecca Jarvis, CBS News business and economics correspondent. 

Format calls for questions from those in attendance plus YouTube viewers. 

It’ll be interesting to see how many hardball questions relating to the economy are posed by attendees and viewers --- rather than from financial writers and Wall Street analysts. 

High gasoline prices, what’s ahead leading to more U.S. oil production, inspiring more U.S. jobs, reducing high unemployment, problems with home foreclosures, and rushing financial and re-building aid to widespread areas stricken by floods, tornadoes and fires should be prime topics. 

Inflation, still considered “tame” by the media echoing government officials, also should get special attention. 

CBS News says it is planning another town hall on the economy next month, with that one featuring Republican leaders.

 

Bernanke inflation outlook: higher, lower, stable

The inflation word dominated questions and responses at Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s first of planned quarterly televised news conferences yesterday, notes Grumpy Editor. 

The session followed a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).  Officials acknowledged that higher prices for oil, grain, cotton and other commodities were putting upward pressure on inflation. 

Yet, Bernanke’s inflation outlook remained fuzzy and that aspect may have been missed by some media in attendance. 

The Fed’s inflation forecast for this year edged upward to 2.1 percent to 2.8 percent from the 1.3 percent to 1.7 percent outlook made four months ago. 

Bernanke, during the almost one-hour meeting with media, came up with an assortment of lines relating to inflation. 

• Long-term inflation concerns remain stable. 

• Measures of underlying inflation remain subdued. 

• Inflation is likely to decline.

• Inflation expectations are higher. 

• We do have to worry about the inflation rate. 

• Oil prices will stabilize or come down. 

Some of these lines echoed what FOMC officials said earlier in a statement: "Inflation has picked up in recent months, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable and measures of underlying inflation are still subdued.”