AP spotlights negative side of economists’ survey

Associated Press continues to emphasize the “R” (for recession) word. Latest effort got much play in print and broadcast outlets yesterday from a lengthy story by Washington-based Martin Crutsinger. 

Crutsinger pulled information from a National Association for Business Economics survey of 49 economists in declaring, “Because of all the bad news, more and more economists foresee the country falling into a recession.” 

But it turns out to be something like --- is the glass about half full or about half empty?

He reported “45 percent of the economists on its forecasting panel expect a recession this year.”  Grumpy Editor’s translation:  that means 22 economists who see the “R” word approaching --- leaving a higher number, 27, who don’t.

To be fair, Crutsinger, in the fifth paragraph of his piece, works in, “55 percent still believe the country will be able to skate by without falling into an actual downturn, typically defined as two consecutive quarters of declines in gross domestic output, the broadest measure of economic health.”

So how did NABE treat its outlook on its Web site?

“U.S. economic growth is expected to slow to a crawl in the first half of 2008,” said Ellen Hughes-Cromwick, NABE president and chief economist at Ford Motor Co. “While a slight majority of our panel of forecasters expects the economy to avoid a recession in 2008, growth is expected to average just three-quarters of a percent before accelerating in the second half in response to fiscal and monetary stimulus.”